Another friday and another wave of protests in the Middle East with numerous issues yet to be answered, Is the Syrian regime wobbling? Can the opposition continue to get huge numbers of people onto the Streets and will protests in Bahrain continue to be largely ignored? We have been hearing rumours that Bashar will make a speech in the near future, but what he will say is a mystery, I can't see anything more than small reforms and a continuing hardening of the regime's line which is currently completely focused on survival.
We have seen troops storm Jisr Al Shughour and then spread around the north village by village attempting to 'restore calm' and has called on refugees to return home from Turkey, although security forces have reportedly arrested all men when Syrians have returned to their homes. We have been thinking for weeks that each friday could be a turning point where the security forces and the Shabeeha will be unable to control protests and perhaps army units will defect on mass. Yet this has not happened and it seems to be down to which side can keep it up longer. The fate of the regime is dependent upon whether the protestors can out last the security forces and the regime falls, perhaps due to the stalling economy and splits in the security forces.
We can see the hand of Syria in pushing Lebanon into forming a government, as they really need at least one friendly local government as Turkey's rhetoric has become increasingly hostile to the actions of the regime. We have seen Walid Joumblatt and other Lebanese politicians arguing that the world should leave Syria to fix its own problems and allow Bashar to implement reforms. If the Syrian regime does fall it will be interesting to see how the new government in Lebanon continues while chaos reigns in its neighbour. Some commentators have argued that Bashar will try to incite violence in Lebanon to distract from Syria's problems and reinforce his argument that only he can hold Syria's sectarian balance in place.
This does not seem to be happening yet, Beirut at least does not feel tense at the moment but it will crucial how the government handles the results of expected indictments after the investigation into the death of former prime minister Hariri and how the government will manage to please all of those international actors like Saudi Arabia and the USA who have backed factions and have an interest in the country.
Beirut has continued to be beautiful in summer sunshine if blighted by awful traffic. The food is great, and i seem to have gained a few kilo's after a few weeks here, the cakes from the north especially are great ( see picture below) and eating out is affordable enough to do regularly! Today is another day in the office trying to examine the youtube video's and other statements coming out of Syria to try and establish whether the opposition or the regime will gain the upper hand today.
We have seen troops storm Jisr Al Shughour and then spread around the north village by village attempting to 'restore calm' and has called on refugees to return home from Turkey, although security forces have reportedly arrested all men when Syrians have returned to their homes. We have been thinking for weeks that each friday could be a turning point where the security forces and the Shabeeha will be unable to control protests and perhaps army units will defect on mass. Yet this has not happened and it seems to be down to which side can keep it up longer. The fate of the regime is dependent upon whether the protestors can out last the security forces and the regime falls, perhaps due to the stalling economy and splits in the security forces.
We can see the hand of Syria in pushing Lebanon into forming a government, as they really need at least one friendly local government as Turkey's rhetoric has become increasingly hostile to the actions of the regime. We have seen Walid Joumblatt and other Lebanese politicians arguing that the world should leave Syria to fix its own problems and allow Bashar to implement reforms. If the Syrian regime does fall it will be interesting to see how the new government in Lebanon continues while chaos reigns in its neighbour. Some commentators have argued that Bashar will try to incite violence in Lebanon to distract from Syria's problems and reinforce his argument that only he can hold Syria's sectarian balance in place.
This does not seem to be happening yet, Beirut at least does not feel tense at the moment but it will crucial how the government handles the results of expected indictments after the investigation into the death of former prime minister Hariri and how the government will manage to please all of those international actors like Saudi Arabia and the USA who have backed factions and have an interest in the country.
Beirut has continued to be beautiful in summer sunshine if blighted by awful traffic. The food is great, and i seem to have gained a few kilo's after a few weeks here, the cakes from the north especially are great ( see picture below) and eating out is affordable enough to do regularly! Today is another day in the office trying to examine the youtube video's and other statements coming out of Syria to try and establish whether the opposition or the regime will gain the upper hand today.
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