Sunday, April 8, 2012

Walid Joumblatt – Lebanon’s ultimate survivor




The Druze community in Lebanon has not often been seen in the western media but it has always played an integral role in Lebanese politics and it is wise to understand how they interact with other political groups within the country. The most important political representation of the Druze in the country is the Progressive Socialist Party led by the veteran Walid Joumblatt, whose recent shift to support the opposition in Syria can give us a glimpse of the workings of power within Lebanon, and the changing balance of power within the Levant.

The Progressive Socialist Party, founded by Walid Joumblatt’s father Kamal in 1949, has been an important player in Lebanese politics throughout the civil war and the uneasy peace that followed. Joumblatt has proved to be a pragmatic leader able to achieve a continually high degree of representation for those Druze loyal to him and ensuring that his Party has been able to retain key Ministries such as the Ministry of the Displaced. He has led the PSP since his father’s assassination in 1977, and has proved to be one of Lebanon’s great survivors as allies and opponents alike have been killed or fled abroad. This history and the position of the Druze as one of many minorities in Lebanon has led to Joumblatt to seek the protection and advancement of his support base above all, switching alliances at crucial times in Lebanese history.

      Since the end of the Lebanese civil war the country’s communities have carved out shares of the state seeking jobs and privilege for their supporters. Nabih Berri’s Shia has taken hold of the council for the south, the council for development and reconstruction to the Sunni’s, the Fund and Ministry of the displaced to the Druze and so on (1) with the purpose of seeking control of these Ministries to ensure the allotment of the resources of the state and to provide jobs and advancement for Druze loyal to Joumblatt. The Lebanese state and its bureaucracy was not constructed with efficiency of public service provision in mind, instead it has been designed not to upset the Sectarian balance that has held since the end of the civil war.

Joumblatt has shifted alliances over time to ensure the continued protection of the PSP’s status within the state and has allied with Hezbollah, with Al-Hariri’s faction, as well as having a variable relationship with the regional powers, especially with Syria whose sphere of influence the PSP has moved in and out of as its regional power has waned and then resurged. The PSP originally began as one of the many socialist movements across the Arab world after the Second World War and during the Civil war was allied militarily with leftist and Pro-Palestinian forces against Israel, its proxies and Syria.
     
Since this point the PSP have been involved in Government consistently to ensure the continued access to state resources for its constituents. The events of February 2005, the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the withdrawal of Syrian Soldiers from Lebanon provided a challenge and an opportunity for the Joumblatt to gain greater influence in the power vacuum appeared in the Lebanese political scene. The Syrian withdrawal has opened up new networks of control for political actors in Lebanon- what was once dominated by Syria and used to enrich the elites around the Syrian leadership is now under control of a new generation of political elites in Lebanon.
     
The long-term challenge for Joumblatt is how the Druze deal with the continuing growth in strength of Hezbollah, particularly as the Shiites, which Hezbollah represents, encompass a far greater degree of the population than the Druze who have power and influence beyond the size of the community. This challenge has been seen in the way in which the Joumblatt has reacted both towards Hezbollah but also the continuing uprisings against the government of Assad in Syria. Since shifting back towards the Syrian sphere of influence the PSP has switched sides in the Lebanese Parliament and allowed the Hezbollah dominated block in June last year to form a government under Prime Minister Mikati, Joumblatt had realized that the best way to protect Druze interests was to join Hezbollah in forming a government. Yet now he has publicly shown his support for the uprisings in Syria, being photographed holding a sign saying Homs at a vigil in Lebanon.

Joumblatt is a canny politician and his reading of the situation in Syria must not be underestimated; he is seeking to ensure his position in the shifting political landscape of Lebanese politics with the new possibility of a Post-Assad Syria but also seeking to ensure the continued existence of the patronage networks that keep his followers loyal and ready to vote for his party in elections or to come onto the streets when he requests them to. 

      Walid Joumblatt and the Druze of Lebanon are the winners of the confessional system at the current moment, they have long held influence greater than their numbers, they constitute perhaps 6% of the Lebanese population yet have power through the confessional system of Government, which Lebanon has maintained since independence. The PSP have continued to punch above their weight politically and have held key Ministries through the rule of multiple governments and this has enabled Walid Joumblatt to reinforce his support base with the apportionment of Government funds.

His support of the Syrian opposition shows the fluidity nature of the balance of power in Syria. The build up of violence by security forces has caused this shift of calculation and Jumblatt must have seen in the shifting political forces potential benefits to his people, whether in the potential success of the Syrian opposition or more likely potential positives coming from improved relations with regional and international powers. Joumblatt’s behaviour shows us that the Lebanese political scene is adaptive and mortal enemies can end up as allies their feuds forgotten. The priorities of the leaders are survival and protection of their communities, Joumblatt has successfully led the Druze and survived civil war and the peace that followed by cleverly negotiating changing political conditions, anticipating possible fall out from crises and keeping his followers loyal. He has been one of the ultimate survivors in Lebanese politics and if he sees the winds of change in Syrian politics we would be wise to heed him.




References
1.     Mattar, M.F (2004) On Corruption, In Salam, N (eds) Options for Lebanon, Centre For Lebanese Studies, I.B. Tauris London
2.     Flanagan, S.T and Abdel-Samad, M (2009) Hezbollah’s Social Jihad: Non-profits as Resistance Organizations, Middle East Policy Vol XVI, Summer 2009, Middle East Policy Council.




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