So Saleh has left Yemen to have medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, presumably in a condo with Ben Ali and is having the shrapnel removed from his chest, the question is then, will he be able to return, or indeed want to return to Yemen.
There are confused reports coming out the country, but it seems that the vice president has taken control and a fragile cease fire seems to be holding. It is definitely still too early to call it a revolution, i think there are three possible outcomes. Firstly that Saleh has the medical treatment and then returns to yemen and retakes control (probably brutally) and either the country slips back towards a 1990's civil war rerun or the opposition forces him out. The second possible option is that he stays in Saudi but that someone close to him, an advisor, son or someone from the military takes over, similar to how Mubarak was trying to position a successor in Egypt, this similarly could end badly as the opposition and powerful figures in the country seem determined to see the end of this regime and those associated with it. The third option is some kind of negotiated transfer of power, mediated by the west or other Gulf countries.
Aside from the irony of trying to set up a democratic transition with the the help of the GCC countries, it seems difficult to envisage that those around Saleh who have benefitted under his rule, becoming rich and influential will allow any kind of democratic transition which could risk them losing their privileged position. I think it is perhaps similar to the situation in Syria where perhaps 100,000-500,000 crucial people believe that they are better off while the regime continues, while these people side with the regime it is difficult to see change. This factor is more crucial in Syria where the state is built around the regime but still i think it is difficult to envisage the regime handing over power easily.
All anyone outside of Yemen can do is to pressure the regime wherever possible, and offer support to incentivise change and to mediate wherever required and hope. However much we see the 'Arab Spring' faltering in Libya, Syria and Yemen it is important to recognise how far things have come, and how things are being debated in Egypt which were barely imagined 10 years ago.
There are confused reports coming out the country, but it seems that the vice president has taken control and a fragile cease fire seems to be holding. It is definitely still too early to call it a revolution, i think there are three possible outcomes. Firstly that Saleh has the medical treatment and then returns to yemen and retakes control (probably brutally) and either the country slips back towards a 1990's civil war rerun or the opposition forces him out. The second possible option is that he stays in Saudi but that someone close to him, an advisor, son or someone from the military takes over, similar to how Mubarak was trying to position a successor in Egypt, this similarly could end badly as the opposition and powerful figures in the country seem determined to see the end of this regime and those associated with it. The third option is some kind of negotiated transfer of power, mediated by the west or other Gulf countries.
Aside from the irony of trying to set up a democratic transition with the the help of the GCC countries, it seems difficult to envisage that those around Saleh who have benefitted under his rule, becoming rich and influential will allow any kind of democratic transition which could risk them losing their privileged position. I think it is perhaps similar to the situation in Syria where perhaps 100,000-500,000 crucial people believe that they are better off while the regime continues, while these people side with the regime it is difficult to see change. This factor is more crucial in Syria where the state is built around the regime but still i think it is difficult to envisage the regime handing over power easily.
All anyone outside of Yemen can do is to pressure the regime wherever possible, and offer support to incentivise change and to mediate wherever required and hope. However much we see the 'Arab Spring' faltering in Libya, Syria and Yemen it is important to recognise how far things have come, and how things are being debated in Egypt which were barely imagined 10 years ago.
On Saleh: I think this thing of him going to Saudi for so-called medical treatment is really his exit plan. It's not nece...ssarily "his" plan, but is the plan nonetheless. The countries of the GCC have been trying to find a solution to the Yemen issue (sent a delegation to meet him a while back, but to no avail). The Saudis in particular want this to be over, so I reckon they had to do a bit of arm twisting and he was "summoned". I think they will engineer some kind of a scenario to feed to the public that will include: 1) Saleh not going back, 2) strike some deal with the opposition, and 3) get someone else (less tainted and whom the opposition will agree to) to take over.
ReplyDeletei think we also underestimated how bad his injuries were, and perhaps i'm less optimistic about the outcome in Yemen, i'm not sure how far the Saudi's will be able to control things anymore, and I can see it spiralling!
ReplyDelete